The poll is an indication of a drop in support for Labor. They will obviously be concerned. A primary vote of 25% would send the shivers down any major party pollie. But, there are a number of points to keep in mind:
- This poll registers a sudden drop of six percentage points for ALP primary vote over March 2008. The margin of error for a sample of 1000 is about 3 percentage points (with 95% confidence). Statistically, caution must be exercised in drawing conclusions from one-off polls that detract from a trend. I would want to see the next two polls at least before being definite that Labor support has collapsed to the extent indicated.
- EMRS "fold" the undecideds back into the sample to come up with a 33Labor/42Liberal/22Green headline result. The problem with this approach is that it assumes the undecided voter will vote the same way as the sample. History show us that undecided voters in the past have favoured Labor 3:1 on election day. That is not to say this will definitely happen again in 2010, but the incumbent nearly always receives a "narrowing" during the campaign . Therefore, it is reasonable to predict that the EMRS 33/42/22 underestimates Labor and overestimates the Libs.
- The Greens at an adjusted 22% is a highly unlikely result. The Greens always opinion poll well (throughout the country) but nearly always do worse at elections. If the Greens return 18% on election day, which is a reasonable estimate (it was about 16.5% last election) then again the Labor vote will likely benefit more than the Liberals'.
- I saw a press report on the ABC site where EMRS's Lucy Millen claimed the most likely outcome, on her poll, was a Liberal majority government. I did query that with her and she sent me a very courteous reply where she explained she did not intend to give that impression. We both agree that, as a rule of thumb, one of the major parties needs a primary vote at least in the high 40's to get a majority.
- The preferred Premier result is extremely worrying for Labor. The electorate seems to have made its mind up about Paul Lennon, and there appears no way back for his popularity stakes to improve. True, it is primary votes that determine elections, not "beauty contests", but the disparity between Lennon and Hodgman is so great, and has been there now for over 12 months, that Labor members must be worried. If Lennon can't improve his popularity and the Labor primary vote remains in minority government territory in the polls over the rest of 2008, then his leadership will be questioned.
- On current data, I give a a hung parliament about an 80% chance. Despite the Libs doing well in this and recent polls, I just don't see them getting into the high 40s on primaries to get a majority. It would mean a minimum 12% swing from from their 2006 result to even have a chance at majority, and there has not been a double-digit swing in an Australian state or federal election over the past 30 years where an opposition has won government.
